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MLB player props

MLB player prop research, explained.

Hits, total bases, home runs, runs, RBIs and strikeouts, each with an estimated chance built from the lineup, the matchup and how often the player will actually bat.

7 marketsUpdated with the live FanDuel price21+

Alex Rivera
SS · Hits
MLB
Line · FanDuel −150
Over 0.5 hits
Estimated chance62.0%
Model fair odds−163
Break-even60.0%
Estimate vs price+2.0 pts
Last 10 gamesHit in 7 of last 10
Why this pick?
  • Recent form: a hit in 7 of his last 10 games.
  • Opportunity: batting second, about 4.4 expected plate appearances.
  • Matchup: the opposing starter allows above-average contact.
  • Biggest uncertainty: today’s lineup isn’t confirmed yet.
Illustrative example · fictional player and numbers

Markets

Every MLB market GammaLine covers.

HitsTotal basesHome runsRunsRBIsHits + Runs + RBIsPitcher strikeouts

Inside the estimate

What the MLB model looks at.

  • Expected plate appearances from lineup slot, home or away, and the player’s own at-bat share.
  • For hits and total bases, strikeouts, hits on contact and home runs are modeled separately and then combined.
  • The opposing starter and how long he is likely to pitch.
  • Small samples are pulled toward league averages, so a hot week doesn’t swing the number too far.

Stats & lineups: MLB Stats API · Prices: FanDuel

Lineup status

See whether a lineup is confirmed before you trust a number.

Optimized hits list

A ranked shortlist of one-hit props using the calibrated estimates.

Every probability input

Open any player to see the pieces the estimate is built from.

Do your picks hit?

Saved picks are graded from official box scores after the game.

Honest numbers

How the MLB model has done.

The 2025 calibration check covered 34,664 player appearances. The average estimate moved from 63.52% to 62.47% against an actual rate of 62.27%, a modest improvement. These figures measure probability error, not results against a sportsbook.

See every sport’s model checks

Research MLB props with GammaLine.

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