Every pick starts with a number the sportsbook draws. That number is the line. For a receiver it might be 4.5 catches. For a hitter, 0.5 hits. For a guard, 17.5 points. Your only decision is which side of it the player lands on: above or below.
Why the half?
Nobody catches half a pass. That is the point. With the line at 4.5, four catches is below and five is above, so there is no tie. Every night settles one way or the other.
Some lines are whole numbers, like 5 catches. Then a tie is possible. If the player catches exactly five, the pick is a push and the money is returned. Above still means six or more, and below still means four or fewer.
One example
Say a receiver’s line is 4.5 catches and you pick above. He needs five catches or more. Four is a miss, five is a hit, and nine is still just a hit. The line only asks whether he clears the number, not by how much.
Our forecasts work the same way. When we say a pick happens 55 nights in 100, we mean the player clears that line 55 nights out of 100. How to read our forecast.
Published by GammaLine · Updated September 29, 2026
More lessons: What the price actually means · Why a likely pick can be a bad deal · How to read our forecast · How to read the odds: break-even and implied probability · What are fair odds? Turning a probability into a price · Why a 60% pick still misses