Next to every line sits a price, written as American odds: +110, −150 and so on. It looks like code. It is two plain facts: what you would win, and how often the pick has to hit for the price to be fair.
Put down $10, win how much?
- A plus price is what $100 wins. At +110, $100 wins $110, so $10 wins $11.
- A minus price is what you put down to win $100. At −150, $150 wins $100, so $10 wins $6.67.
The smaller the payout, the more likely the sportsbook thinks the pick is. At −150 it is treating the pick as likely, and paying less for it.
What the price needs
Turn the payout around and you get the number that matters: how often the pick has to hit just to break even.
Minus price: price ÷ (price + 100). At −150: 150 ÷ 250 = 60 nights in 100.
Plus price: 100 ÷ (price + 100). At +110: 100 ÷ 210 = 48 nights in 100.
At −150 you win $6.67 on a hit and lose $10 on a miss, so you need 60 hits in 100 to come out even. At +110 you win $11 and lose $10, so 48 hits in 100 is enough. That break-even is what we mean when a forecast says the price “needs” a number of nights.
Published by GammaLine · Updated September 29, 2026
More lessons: What’s a line, anyway? · Why a likely pick can be a bad deal · How to read our forecast · How to read the odds: break-even and implied probability · What are fair odds? Turning a probability into a price · Why a 60% pick still misses